Analysis finds many areas growing the crops may not be suitable by 2050, while others could benefit
Researchers combined climate change projections and soil factors to model how suitable various regions will be for growing crops in 2050. The analysis found that all major coffee-producing regions face a decline in suitability, including Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia.
For cashews, major growing regions such as India, Ivory Coast and Benin are predicted to become less suitable, while for avocados areas including the Dominican Republic, Peru and Indonesia will suffer. For all three crops, appropriate growing regions may open up at higher altitudes and latitudes, particularly for cashews and avocados. The US, Argentina, China and countries in east Africa are predicted to benefit the most.
The study found that climate change adaptation will be necessary in many major producing regions, with potential mitigation measures including adaptations in plant breeding and site-specific management.
“It was important to investigate where there will be shifts amongst suitable growing regions for all three crops due to climate change, with both expansions and contractions. This is why we put a focus on today’s main producing countries,” said Dr Roman Grüter, of ZHAW School of Life Sciences and Facility Management in Switzerland, who was the lead author of the paper. “In our suitability model, we wanted to prioritize regions where crops were locally adapted already.
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